Michael Wilhelm, together with his wife Nicole, comprise the Oakland-based Wilhelm Team, which is affiliated with Compass.

Kathleen Harrison

The East Bay housing market is showing surprising strength despite having fewer homes for sale, suggesting more buyers are actively looking to purchase.

The number of pending sales increased sharply in January, even though there were fewer listings compared with the same month last year, according to MLS data and the latest report from the Bay East Association of Realtors.

"January's numbers suggest a market that is gaining momentum," David Stark, chief public affairs and communications officer for Bay East Association of Realtors, said in a statement. "While there are fewer listings than last year, pending sales are up significantly. That is typically an early indicator of increased buyer confidence heading into the spring market."

Real estate agents on the ground report intense competition, especially in desirable areas like the Contra Costa County confluence of Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda – often called Lamorinda – where they say properties are receiving multiple offers quickly and open house traffic is the busiest it's been in years.

Agents attribute this activity to stabilized interest rates giving buyers confidence, strong regional tech employment, especially in AI, and very limited inventory. The number of homes listed for sale across the East Bay last month totaled 1,484, down from 1,670 in January 2025 – approximately 11% fewer listings. In early February, the weekly average 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.11%, which remained very close to its two-year low.

Compass agent Dana Green said that there is a "disconnect" between headlines and reality. Specifically, the combination of pent-up demand, rate stability, low inventory and strong local fundamentals is creating a different picture than what national trends might suggest.

"While national data points to affordability challenges, we're experiencing the busiest start to a year we've seen in quite some time," Green said. "Every single one of our 2026 listings has received multiple offers quickly, and open house traffic is at levels we haven't seen in years."

So what's driving the uptick in activity? Besides interest rates stabilizing enough to give buyers confidence, she said agents are also seeing signs of much lower inventory over the next few months, which is particularly concerning for buyers given that inventory typically peaks by May. This supply constraint combined with strong demand is creating additional competitive pressure.

And in terms of who's buying, Green said a consistent buyer profile is emerging.

"We're seeing the same two groups that emerged post-Covid competing for the same properties: young families seeking excellent schools and space for growing children, and younger empty nesters relocating to be near grandchildren," she said. "Both prioritize proximity to the people they love most, and both want single-story homes on flat lots. This creates intense competition for specific inventory types."

Dana Green, Compass agent

Compass

Green said if the current momentum continues, she expects this competition to intensify as buyers and sellers move into the traditional spring selling season. However, it is also catching many buyers off-guard as they are not moving fast enough to compete in the current environment.

Compass agent Michael Wilhelm said he's seeing tight inventory across Oakland, Piedmont, Berkeley and Alameda, which is helping support pricing. He said when homes are priced well and presented properly, foot traffic at open houses has been steady and serious buyers are showing up, but when homes are priced too aggressively, "it has been crickets."

In Oakland and Berkeley, he said well-located homes near amenities and transit are drawing solid interest, while Alameda continues to attract lifestyle-driven buyers who want shoreline access and a neighborhood feel at a more approachable price point than San Francisco.

Wilhelm said Piedmont continues to operate in its own lane because of limited supply and strong school demand. He said he recently sold a home there to an executive at OpenAI, which speaks to the ongoing spillover from San Francisco's AI-driven growth.

"Buyers in that sector are looking east for more space, community and long-term value while remaining close to the city," Wilhelm told the Business Times.

Linnette Edwards, co-CEO of Abio Properties in Oakland, said she's witnessing more momentum in the East Bay than she had anticipated. She noted that agents are seeing strong competition across the board in Alameda County and Contra Costa County. Even in areas like the Oakland hills, which is usually slower, properties are now drawing multiple offers with clean terms, she added.

"We've seen a noticeable resurgence in activity in the East Bay with multiple offers. When we were talking with our agents in our office we were looking at multiple offers, over 10-plus offers in different scenarios over in the Oakland and Berkeley area," Edwards said. "In some cases, homes are selling and exceeding the recent comparables, which wouldn't have been supported just a few weeks ago."

Edwards also said lenders are reporting more loan applications and buyers who were in waiting mode are now competing aggressively.

Linnette Edwards is co-CEO of Abio Properties, which has offices in Oakland and Lafayette.

Abio Properties

"That's where the tide has turned," Edwards said. "While it's still early, the momentum is clearly favoring the sellers at this point, but the demand is real and it's accelerating."

Closed sales were slightly lower year over year, with 663 homes sold in January 2026 compared with 696 in January 2025.