If this week's news left you feeling a little whiplash, you are not alone. For Lamorinda, the communities of Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda, three stories landed at once: Anthropic moved closer to one of the largest IPOs in history, mortgage rates climbed past 7.5% for the first time since April 2024, and a new San Francisco Chronicle analysis placed both Orinda and Lafayette among California's ten wealthiest suburbs.

Here is where things stand as of September 30, 2026. Lamorinda's median price per square foot is $810, about 9% below its 2022 peak of $893. Anthropic's IPO is expected in late October, and the 30-year fixed rate reached 7.58% on September 29.

When Is Anthropic's IPO, and What Does It Mean for Lamorinda?

Anthropic, the San Francisco company behind the Claude AI models, is headed for a public debut in late October, with shares expected to begin trading just before the November 3 elections. Reported valuations sit around $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs ever.

If you haven't followed an IPO closely, the final stretch is simpler than it sounds. The company spends a week or two pitching the offering to large investors, sets a price per share the night before, and the next morning the stock opens to anyone with a brokerage account. Dates like these can shift, but the direction is clear.

Anthropic hasn't disclosed how much of the company its employees own, but a Redfin analysis in July 2026 estimated employee equity at roughly $63 billion after taxes, enough to theoretically buy about 9% of all homes in the San Francisco metro. That estimate came at a lower valuation than the one now being reported.

For Lamorinda, what matters is how that wealth reaches the housing market, and historically it arrives in waves. The first comes around the listing, when some early shareholders may be able to sell, and a larger one follows when employee lockups expire, likely in 2027. Buyers rarely wait for either: a UCLA Anderson study of past Bay Area IPOs found that shareholders begin shopping for homes once the filing signals their wealth is coming.

Mortgage Rates Cross 7.5%

Mortgage News Daily's index of top-tier 30-year fixed rates reached 7.50% on September 28, its highest reading since April 2024, and moved to 7.58% the next day, driven by a sharp selloff in the bond market. On an illustrative $1.6 million loan, moving from 6% to 7.5% adds roughly $1,600 to the monthly payment. Many buyers at the upper end of our market rely less on financing, but rates still shape how far anyone is willing to stretch.

Orinda and Lafayette Make the Chronicle's List

The Chronicle's September 28 analysis found that nine of California's ten richest suburbs are now in the Bay Area. Orinda ranked in the top three alongside Los Altos and Alamo, and Lafayette also made the list, earning the Chronicle's playful label as the "bargain" of the group with an average 2026 home value just under $2 million.

Moraga may not have made the Chronicle's list, but it remains one of Lamorinda's great opportunities, especially for buyers making their first move into the area. Its schools are exceptional, too: Campolindo High ranks first among public high schools in Contra Costa County on Niche, and Moraga's high school scores place it in the top 1% statewide.

The Chronicle's framing also echoes what Compass International Holdings Chairman and CEO Robert Reffkin said this summer when he named the East Bay as the place he would buy, which I wrote about in July.

Are Lamorinda Home Prices Still Below the 2022 Peak?

Yes, by a meaningful margin. Lamorinda's median price per square foot peaked at $893 in 2022 and stood at $810 through August 2026, roughly 9% below that high, and it has held between $810 and $825 since 2023. The pattern appears in each town: Orinda sits at $789 against its 2022 high of $856, Moraga at $794 against $873, and Lafayette, which has climbed steadily since 2023, at $857 against $929.

In my view, a market that has held its ground for four years below its prior peak is passing through its bottom rather than pressing against its ceiling. The homes closest to 2022 values combine an exceptional location, a genuine opportunity, real rarity, and condition that asks nothing of the buyer. When all four line up, buyers compete, and I expect those homes to be the first to move past prior highs. When one is missing, the conversation shifts to price.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Lamorinda?

For buyers, signals point to this fall being a strong window, even though rates understandably give pause. Waiting only pays off if rates fall, and many forecasters expect them to hover near 7% for some time, with some warning the next move could be higher. My honest read is that the window before a new wave of buyers is often the best one, and a rate can be revisited later in a way a street cannot. If you have been waiting for the right house in the right neighborhood, be ready to act quickly when it appears, and talk with your lender now about every financing option on the table.

For sellers, I believe this is a good time to sell, especially for exceptional homes. As new wealth enters the market, I expect it to compete for the best properties and pay strong prices for them. Preparation still matters: the homes that check every box draw the most interest, and thoughtful pricing and presentation are what move a property into that group. Our team has several homes coming to market in October, including some on Lamorinda's most sought-after streets, and I look forward to sharing them with you soon.

Whatever the headlines say, one principle has held throughout my career: the right property is always rare, and rarity makes it a good time to buy it or sell it. In Lamorinda, a home on a coveted street may not come up again for years. Waiting for perfect market conditions can mean missing the one opportunity that matters most.

As always, if you want to talk through what these headlines mean for your own plans, I am happy to have that conversation.