Last week, Compass International Holdings Chairman and CEO Robert Reffkin sat down with CNBC's Squawk Box to talk about the AI boom and what it means for real estate. With OpenAI and Anthropic both moving toward IPOs, the wealth being created in the Bay Area right now is significant, and you can already see it showing up in the numbers coming out of the South Bay, San Francisco, and Marin.

Then the host asked Robert Reffkin a simple question. If Robert could buy a house anywhere in the country, where would it be?

His answer was the East Bay. When the person with a national vantage point tells you to buy local, that's not a sales pitch; that's a signal.

Robert’s reasoning was straightforward. Every other major Bay Area market has already pushed past its 2022 highs. The East Bay hasn't yet. In his view, that gap will close, and buyers and sellers who move ahead of it will be the ones who benefit most.

I have been saying some version of this for a while now, but hearing it from someone who sits at the center of the national real estate conversation lands differently. I've spent the last 18 years as the most active agent in Lafayette. With over two decades and $3 billion in sales, you start to recognize these patterns before they show up in headlines. Our own MLS data backs it up: the median sales price in Lamorinda has been flat for three years, exactly the kind of pause before movement Reffkin was describing.

We are seeing it most clearly right now in Lafayette's luxury market, homes over $3 million. In the last 12 months, Lafayette has had 60 sales above that mark, compared to 40 in Orinda and 4 in Moraga. Activity in that market has picked up in a way that feels different from the past couple of years. Buyers who have been waiting are starting to move, and sellers who have been hesitant are starting to list.

If you have been thinking about buying in Lamorinda and waiting for the "right time," this may be it. Prices in the South Bay and Marin have already passed their 2022 highs. Buying here now means buying before Lamorinda closes that same gap.

For sellers, the timing argument is even more specific. MLS data shows listings down 25% month over month in June and down 6% year over year. This equates to less competition for your home right now and a stronger negotiating position. Today’s market will not last forever. There is a meaningful group of homeowners who have been sitting on the sidelines for a few years now, and at some point, they will decide it is time to sell too. When that happens, the market shifts from a handful of sellers with the advantage to a much more crowded field, and historically, that kind of shift has put downward pressure on prices as supply catches up to demand. Selling before that wave arrives, rather than after, is the difference between standing out and blending in.

As always, I'm happy to talk through what this means for your specific situation, whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on things.