Our team loves the excitement of a new year in real estate. This week marks the official start of the 2026 market, and with sunshine in the forecast and unusually low inventory, we're seeing activity move faster than we have in quite some time.

Our first two Dana Green Team listings of the year tell the story perfectly. Both received multiple offers and are now in contract above list price. Here's what buyers need to understand: there are no predictable patterns emerging yet. Some homes are getting pre-emptive offers, others are setting offer dates, and the timelines are varying. The only strategy that works is acting the moment a house you're interested in hits the market.

When it comes to making an offer, this fresh market requires a different mindset. Don't assume you'll have the opportunity to counter or negotiate. You need to write your strongest offer right out of the gate. After all the work you've put into preparing to buy, getting pre-approved, and searching for the right home, you don't want to lose out at the finish line because you held back or weren't fully prepared with the information and strategy you needed to win.

Our team was showing homes throughout this past holiday weekend, and the energy was remarkable. Houses went pending quickly, and our open house was packed with over 60 parties from across the Bay Area.

Here's what's important to understand: the number of sales in Lamorinda has peaked in April, May, or early June for the past five straight years. Houses are closing in an average of 21 to 30 days. This means March, April, and May are the months we are sprinting. That means the window for buyers to secure their ideal home is narrowing quickly. If you're planning to buy this year, acting now gives you the best selection and positioning before we hit the spring rush.

I also wanted to share some broader market insights from Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass, about what's driving this momentum.

Mortgage rates have dropped to approximately 6%, their lowest level since 2022. This is significant news, especially if you've been waiting for the right time to make a move.

Here's what Mike's analysis reveals:

For Buyers: The typical mortgage payment for a median-priced home is now 10% cheaper than it was a year ago. Historically, when rates drop like this, we see demand increase faster than supply, which means buyers who act now have an advantage before competition intensifies. We've seen this pattern before in early 2023 and September 2024, when similar rate drops led to increased sales and rising prices.

Pricing Trends: Here in Lamorinda, the average price per square foot for 2025 reflects a 1% decline in value compared to the prior year. This slight softening in pricing, combined with lower interest rates, creates improved affordability for buyers. Mike sees 2026 as an opportunity for affordability to improve as home prices remain relatively flat while incomes continue to grow.

What This Means: We're in what Mike calls a "Goldilocks Scenario" for real estate sales growth in 2026. For buyers, this combination of lower rates, stable prices, and limited competition creates favorable conditions. For sellers, understanding that buyer demand is starting to respond to these lower rates can help inform your timing and pricing strategy.

If you've been thinking about making a move, now is the time to talk about your specific situation and goals. We are on standby and ready to help!